The ONS has just released the latest publication of weighted Scotland estimates and findings for Scottish businesses with 10 + employees. The ONS’ BICS is a voluntary fortnightly business survey, which captures businesses’ responses on how their turnover, workforce, prices, trade and business resilience have been affected by current conditions, including the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the end of the EU transition period. Weighting the BICS responses enables the ONS to produce estimates for Scottish businesses more generally, not just those that have responded *.
In summary, the report details:
In the period 22 February to 7 March 2021, the share of businesses ‘currently trading’ remained low at 82.8%, reflecting the continued lockdown.
The Accommodation & Food Services and the Arts, Entertainment & Recreation industry sectors continued to have the lowest shares of businesses ‘currently trading’ – estimated at 33.0% and 50.4%.
The share of the workforce on furlough leave was estimated at 20.8% in the period 8 February to 7 March 2021 – broadly in line with the previous period, but still well below the rate of 32.1% in June 2020 (when comparable estimates began).
The Arts, Entertainment & Recreation and the Accommodation & Food Services industry sectors continued to have the highest shares of the workforce on furlough leave – estimated at 66.2% and 66.0%.
The share of the workforce on furlough leave was estimated at 20.8% in the period 8 February to 7 March 2021 – broadly in line with the previous period, but still well below the rate of 32.1% in June 2020 (when comparable estimates began).
In the period 8 February to 7 March 2021, there were two industries where more than half of trading businesses experienced a decrease in turnover compared with what is normally expected. These were Accommodation & Food Services (estimated at 84.1%) and Wholesale & Retail (54.2%).
In the latest period, 29.7% of businesses reported they had no or less than three months cash reserves, with higher rates for Accommodation & Food Services (estimated at 57.4%) and Construction (estimated at 44.8%).
In the latest period, 4.6% of businesses reported that they had no or low confidence that their business would survive the next three months, with the highest rate for Accommodation & Food Services (estimated at 16.3%).
In the period 8 February to 7 March 2021, of businesses currently trading that had exported in the last 12 months, 36% were exporting less than normal, while a further 5.5% had not been able to export. For importing, 29% of relevant businesses were importing less than normal, while 4% had not been able to import in the latest period.
The most commonly reported challenge continues to be additional paperwork, with over half of exporters (53%) reporting this as an exporting challenge and 48% of importers reporting this as an importing challenge. However over a third (34%) of exporters and 41% of importers did not experience any challenges.
* The weighted Scotland estimates are for businesses that have a presence in Scotland, as opposed to only those businesses headquartered in Scotland. Having a presence in Scotland means that the business has a local unit or site (e.g. shop, office, factory) in Scotland. In terms of the base of the estimates 9,905 businesses responded to the Wave 25 BICS UK-wide – 1,330 of these responding businesses had a presence in Scotland. Excluding the micro businesses (those with less than 10 employees) takes the base for the weighted Scotland estimates down to 1,208 responding businesses.
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